Prediction of Regional Emergence Timing of the Exotic Weed Amaranthus patulus under Climate Change

Hyun Hwa Park; Yong In Kuk

doi:10.7740/kjcs.2025.70.1.040

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2025 Vol.70, Issue 1 Preview Page

Original Research Article

Prediction of Regional Emergence Timing of the Exotic Weed Amaranthus patulus under Climate Change 기후변화에 따른 외래잡초 가는털비름 (Amaranthus patulus) 지역별 출아시기 예측

1 March 2025. pp. 40-50

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Abstract

This study investigates how temperature and moisture variations due to climate change affect the emergence of Amaranthus patulus, an exotic weed, and aims to create a precise model for predicting its emergence timing to aid in effective weed management. We assessed the emergence rates of A. patulus seeds in growth chambers and greenhouses across various temperature and soil moisture conditions. The Gompertz model was used to analyze the relationship between emergence rate, days after sowing, and cumulative soil moisture. Additionally, we used weather data from multiple locations to predict regional emergence timing. Experiments conducted at varying temperatures (25/15°C, 30/20°C, 35/25°C, and 26°C, 29°C, and 31°C) indicated that increased temperatures expedited emergence initiation and maximized emergence rates, though delays were noted under specific scenarios. Nonlinear regression with the Gompertz model revealed that a cumulative effective temperature of 74 °C (in growth chambers) and 160°C (in greenhouses) was needed for 50% emergence, with model accuracy varying by environmental conditions. Analysis of soil moisture levels (40%, 60%, 80%, 100%) showed a positive correlation between moisture and emergence rates. Regional predictions suggested climate change could reduce the emergence period by over 10~17 days. This study underscores the utility of germination prediction models incorporating temperature and soil moisture as tools for weed management. Future research should focus on developing comprehensive models that consider multiple environmental factors and enhancing field application.

Keywords

Amaranthus patulus

Climate change

Exotic weed

Gompertz model

Weed emergence

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Information

Publisher :The Korean Society of Crop Science
Publisher(Ko) :한국작물학회
Journal Title :The Korean Journal of Crop Science
Journal Title(Ko) :한국작물학회지
Volume : 70
No :1
Pages :40-50
Received Date : 2025-02-10
Revised Date : 2025-02-13
Accepted Date : 2025-02-14
DOI :https://doi.org/10.7740/kjcs.2025.70.1.040

The Korean Journal of Crop Science ISSN:0252-9777(Print) 2287-8432(Online) 한국작물학회지

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